Only 1 Percent of Congregations Close Each Year, Study Finds
Religious congregations in the United States have one of the lowest closure rates ever observed for any kind of organization, with only 1 percent going out of existence each year on average, according to a new study by researchers at Duke University and the University of Arizona.
That low mortality rate, however, is not necessarily good news for the nation’s churches and synagogues, the study’s authors cautioned.
“Normally, one would think such a low mortality rate means that congregations overall are unusually healthy organizations,” said Mark Chaves, a sociologist at Duke and a co-author of the study. “But we believe that’s probably not the case. Instead, we think it means that congregations are a type of organization that has ways to stay alive even when they are very weak.”
Mortality rates have been determined for many types of organizations in the past 20 years, including volunteer social service organizations (2.3 percent), California wineries (5 percent) and peace movement groups (9 percent). But this study, published in the June issue of The Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, is the first to establish a national mortality rate for religious congregations.
To establish the congregational mortality rate, Chaves, co-author Shawna Anderson and three other researchers revisited the National Congregations Study, a major 1998 survey that Chaves directed at Arizona prior to joining the Duke faculty in 2007 as a professor of sociology, religion and divinity. Under the direction of Anderson, a doctoral candidate at Arizona and now a Duke research associate in sociology, a team of Arizona graduate students checked to see how many of the 1,234 congregations in the 1998 study were still active in January 2005.
Researchers scoured the internet, reviewed denominational directories and, when necessary, made personal contact through postcard mailings, phone calls and even drive-by visits. They found that only 27 of the congregations had disbanded since the original study. After adjusting the data to account for the high percentage of large congregations in the original study, the researchers concluded that 6.6 percent of the congregations had closed during the 6.5 years from 1998 to January 2005 for an annual mortality rate of 1 percent.
The researchers found a few notable differences between the disbanded and active congregations. The disbanded congregations were less likely to have a denominational affiliation and to own the building where they met. Not surprisingly, they also tended to be much smaller than the active congregations, with a median size of 50 adult participants compared to 269 for the active congregations.
Of greatest interest to the researchers, though, were differences in the severity of conflict within the disbanded and active congregations. The percentage of congregations in 1998 that reported having a conflict serious enough to prompt a special meeting was similar for both disbanded and active congregations, at 30 and 26 percent respectively. But the disbanded congregations were much more likely than the active congregations to have had conflicts over which people left in the previous two years. More than 44 percent of the disbanded congregations reported having such conflicts in 1998, compared with 26 percent of the active congregations.
“The main difference between congregations doomed to disband and congregations destined for revival is a willingness to adapt, to alter their congregational identity in response to changes in the communities where they are located,” the authors wrote. “And whether a congregation is willing to adapt depends largely on the outcome of conflict between advocates of the status quo and advocates of change.”
Congregations are what sociologists call “minimalist organizations.” They are relatively easy to start and to operate, with low initial costs, low maintenance costs, a variety of resources they can call on when needed, and flexibility in setting their activities and goals.
When congregations are under stress, those reserve resources kick in. Usually, a small but loyal core of members will increase their financial contributions and volunteer hours. At the same time, struggling congregations can draw on endowments and savings accounts that were built up in better times, rent or sell property, or seek denominational subsidies. In periods of decline, they can reduce their activities to a bare minimum, mounting only a single weekly worship service.
“Congregations can continue in this way for a long time, perhaps until a precipitating event like a major conflict pushes them over the edge,” the study authors wrote. “Minimalist organizations are relatively easy to start—hence, new congregations constantly emerge—but they also are more likely to continue to survive even after they become shadows of their former selves.”
Chaves continues to serve as principal investigator for the National Congregations Study. He and other study team members are currently analyzing the results of a second wave of data collection, conducted in 2006-2007. The study is sponsored by Lilly Endowment Inc., the National Science Foundation, the Kellogg Foundation and the Louisville Institute.
